Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.637534e-01 0.310083 0.359186 0.414818 0.475812 0.540383 0.613636
2025-02-09 1.911262e-01 0.252392 0.321976 0.405682 0.502500 0.609896 0.736967
2025-02-16 1.464528e-01 0.216660 0.301757 0.409678 0.540196 0.690452 0.874027
2025-02-23 1.098293e-01 0.183277 0.278403 0.405311 0.565166 0.755281 0.993949
2025-03-02 7.739269e-02 0.148427 0.247419 0.386616 0.569151 0.793070 1.081321
2025-03-09 6.001314e-02 0.130852 0.236156 0.390833 0.600253 0.863340 1.208436
2025-03-16 4.338050e-02 0.110237 0.217195 0.381833 0.612202 0.908581 1.304567
2025-03-23 3.605179e-02 0.103436 0.217398 0.398808 0.658501 0.998021 1.457214
2025-03-30 2.708457e-02 0.090987 0.206765 0.398512 0.680247 1.055268 1.569332
2025-04-06 2.036420e-02 0.080823 0.198170 0.399947 0.703587 1.114341 1.684107
2025-04-13 1.603216e-02 0.074455 0.195030 0.409064 0.737553 1.187760 1.818196
2025-04-20 1.296023e-02 0.070046 0.194669 0.422149 0.777203 1.269195 1.963599
2025-04-27 1.030126e-02 0.065824 0.194363 0.435648 0.818515 1.354708 2.117236
2025-05-04 6.987669e-03 0.057594 0.184879 0.432976 0.835253 1.406392 2.226478
2025-05-11 5.098776e-03 0.052966 0.181993 0.441104 0.868314 1.481191 2.367604
2025-05-18 3.204719e-03 0.046365 0.173637 0.438800 0.884836 1.532640 2.477544
2025-05-25 1.454678e-03 0.037160 0.157253 0.420378 0.874884 1.545614 2.534658
2025-06-01 8.437614e-04 0.033648 0.153882 0.425576 0.902349 1.612538 2.666373
2025-06-08 3.013080e-04 0.027999 0.143570 0.416481 0.905984 1.644493 2.749716
2025-06-15 1.907123e-04 0.027405 0.147115 0.434694 0.954825 1.743318 2.927102
2025-06-22 4.923922e-05 0.024014 0.141741 0.434526 0.972893 1.796753 3.041328
2025-06-29 4.945528e-06 0.021232 0.137463 0.436128 0.993727 1.854355 3.161769
2025-07-06 1.842217e-08 0.019776 0.137121 0.445824 1.028389 1.932948 3.312450